World Blog by humble servant. U.S. Stock Market Snapshot for April 15, 2025

Merged Data: U.S. Stock Market Snapshot for April 15, 2025

Intraday Data (April 15, 2025)

• 10:00 AM Snapshot:
  • Dow Jones: 40,377.35 (-0.36%, -147.44 from April 14’s close of 40,524.79).
  • S&P 500: 5,396.10 (-0.18%, -9.87 from April 14’s close of 5,405.97).
  • NASDAQ: 16,821.18 (-0.061%, -10.30 from April 14’s close of 16,831.48).
  • Russell 2000: 1,882.86 (+0.11%, +1.98 from April 14’s close of 1,880.88).
  • VIX: Not explicitly provided at 10:00 AM, but based on the intraday trend (28.29–31.45), it was likely around 28.50 (as noted in prior intraday VIX data at 10:00 AM).

Closing Values (April 15, 2025)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA):
  • Close: 40,368.96 (-0.38%, -155.83 from April 14’s 40,524.79).
• S&P 500:
  • Close: 5,396.63 (-0.17%, -9.34 from April 14’s 5,405.97).
• NASDAQ Composite:
  • Close: 16,823.17 (-0.05%, -8.31 from April 14’s 16,831.48).
• Russell 2000:
  • Close: 1,882.92 (+0.11%, +2.04 from April 14’s 1,880.88).
• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index):
  • Close: 30.12 (-0.77%, -0.77 from April 14’s 30.89).
  • Day Range: 28.29–31.45 (consistent with prior intraday data showing a low of ~28.00 at 9:00 AM and a high of ~31.00).

Updated Bear Market Report: U.S. Stock Market Analysis with VIX Data as of April 15, 2025

Overview

This report updates the U.S. stock market analysis as of April 15, 2025, using the closing data for April 15: Dow Jones (40,368.96, -0.38%), S&P 500 (5,396.63, -0.17%), NASDAQ (16,823.17, -0.05%), Russell 2000 (1,882.92, +0.11%), and VIX (close: 30.12, day range: 28.29–31.45). It integrates prior data (e.g., S&P 500 range: 4,953.56–6,147.43, VIX year range: 10.62–65.73) to assess bear market phases, rally momentum, and implications for investors, particularly those with less than 20 years of experience.

Current Market Status (April 15, 2025)

• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index):
  • Close: 30.12 (-0.77%, -0.77 from April 14’s 30.89).
  • Day Range: 28.29–31.45 (low of 28.29 early, peaking at 31.45).
  • Context: VIX slightly declined from April 14’s 30.89, continuing the trend of easing fear from April 11’s 37.56. The 2025 gain is ~90% (from ~15.8 end-2024).
  • Year Range: 10.62–65.73 (prior peak: 57.96 on April 9).
• S&P 500:
  • Close: 5,396.63 (-0.17%, -9.34 from April 14’s 5,405.97; 10:00 AM: 5,396.10, -0.18%).
  • Range: 4,953.56 (low) to 6,147.43 (high); -12.2% from peak, +9.0% from low.
  • Status: Correction (10%+ drop); slight pullback.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA):
  • Close: 40,368.96 (-0.38%, -155.83 from April 14’s 40,524.79; 10:00 AM: 40,377.35, -0.36%).
  • Range: 36,611.78 (low) to 45,073.63 (high); -10.4% from peak, +10.3% from low.
  • Status: Correction.
• NASDAQ:
  • Close: 16,823.17 (-0.05%, -8.31 from April 14’s 16,831.48; 10:00 AM: 16,821.18, -0.061%).
  • Range: 15,222.78 (low) to 20,204.58 (high); -16.7% from peak, +10.5% from low.
  • Status: Correction.
• Russell 2000:
  • Close: 1,882.92 (+0.11%, +2.04 from April 14’s 1,880.88; 10:00 AM: 1,882.86, +0.11%).
  • Range: 1,783.06 (low) to 2,449.86 (high); -23.2% from peak, +5.5% from low.
  • Status: Bear market (>20% drop), but recovering.

VIX and Market Dynamics

• April 15 Behavior: VIX ranged from 28.29 to 31.45, closing at 30.12, a slight decline from 30.89. Indices saw modest declines (S&P 500 -0.17%, Dow -0.38%, NASDAQ -0.05%), except for the Russell 2000 (+0.11%), indicating a pause in the rally.
• Why Stable?:
  • Tariffs: April 14 exemptions for smartphones and computers supported tech (NASDAQ’s smallest decline) [Reuters], but uncertainty persists, with Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting exemptions may not be permanent [Reuters].
  • Economy: Recession fears (45% odds, Goldman Sachs) and inflation linger, but recent gains (April 11–14) suggest optimism, though April 15’s pullback reflects caution.
  • Tech: NASDAQ’s -0.05% decline (least among majors) shows resilience, likely due to tariff relief.
• Outcome: VIX at 30.12 remains above normal (15–20) but well below April’s peaks (57.96, 65.73), with the intraday low of 28.29 signaling potential for further declines.

Bear Market Phases

• Recognition Phase (Late 2024–Early 2025):
  • Peaks: S&P 500 (6,147.43), Dow (45,073.63), NASDAQ (20,204.58), Russell 2000 (2,449.86). VIX: ~10.62.
• Panic Phase (March–April 4):
  • April 4: S&P 500 (~4,953.56, -19.4%), NASDAQ (-24.7%), Russell 2000 (-27.2%), Dow (-12.2%). VIX: 45.61.
• Capitulation Phase (April 4–9):
  • Lows: S&P 500 (4,953.56), NASDAQ (15,222.78), Russell 2000 (1,783.06). VIX: 57.96 (April 9).
  • Rally: April 9 tariff pause lifted S&P 500 +9.5% to ~5,453.35, VIX to 33.62.
• Post-Capitulation Rally (April 10–15):
  • April 10: S&P 500 (5,268.05, -3.46%), NASDAQ (-4.31%), Russell 2000 (-4.27%). VIX: 41.87.
  • April 11: VIX spiked to 46.12, closed at 37.56 (36.16 post-close). Indices rallied (S&P 500 +1.81%).
  • April 12: VIX closed at 30.89 (low: 29.75). Indices continued gains (S&P 500 +0.81%, NASDAQ +0.64%).
  • April 14: VIX closed at 30.89 (low: 29.88). Indices continued gains (S&P 500 +0.79%, NASDAQ +0.64%).
  • April 15: VIX closed at 30.12 (low: 28.29). Indices paused (S&P 500 -0.17%, NASDAQ -0.05%), but Russell 2000 gained (+0.11%).

Rally Momentum (April 15)

• VIX Dynamics:
  • VIX at 30.12 (low: 28.29) continues to signal reduced fear, aligning with historical patterns where VIX declines below 35 precede sustained rallies (e.g., 2020: VIX 82.69 to 40, S&P 500 +17%).
  • Signal: The intraday low of 28.29 suggests potential for further VIX declines (e.g., toward 25), which would support a rally resumption.
• Market Levels:
  • April 15 closes (S&P 500: 5,396.63, NASDAQ: 16,823.17, Russell 2000: 1,882.92) remain well above April 4 lows (4,953.56, 15,222.78, 1,783.06). The S&P 500’s pullback (-0.17%) is minor after a +3.45% gain from April 11–14.
  • Next Target: S&P 500 could reach 5,600–5,700 if VIX falls toward 25. Dow could target 41,000–41,500, NASDAQ 17,000–17,200, Russell 2000 1,900–1,950.
• Sentiment:
  • X posts note small-cap strength (Russell 2000 +0.11%) versus large-cap weakness (S&P 500 -0.17%, Dow -0.38%) [prior posts]. Fear & Greed is likely ~25–30, reflecting cautious optimism.
• Catalysts:
  • Pro-Rally: Tariff exemptions for smartphones and computers (April 14) continue to support tech [Reuters]. Potential Fed signals (June 2025 cut) could sustain momentum.
  • Risks: Ongoing trade policy uncertainty or weak data (e.g., jobs) could push S&P 500 to 4,953.56, VIX to 65.73, but VIX’s stability lowers this likelihood.

Capitulation Dynamics

• April 4–9: Capitulation occurred (VIX 57.96, S&P 500 4,953.56). April 9’s +9.5% gain confirmed exhaustion.
• April 11–15: VIX’s decline (46.12 to 30.12) and index gains (S&P 500 +3.27% from April 11–15) confirm a post-capitulation rally, with a slight pause on April 15.

Inexperienced Investors (<20 Years)

• Past: 2007–2009 (-57%, VIX 80+), 2020 (-34%, VIX 82.69), 2022 (-25%, VIX ~36).
• Now: Russell 2000 (-23.2%), NASDAQ (-16.7%), S&P 500 (-12.2%), VIX at 30.12 are less severe. The rally (April 11–14) and small-cap strength on April 15 should boost confidence, though volatility remains a challenge.

Conclusion

• Status: S&P 500 (-12.2%), Dow (-10.4%), and NASDAQ (-16.7%) are in corrections; Russell 2000 (-23.2%) is in a bear market but recovering. VIX at 30.12 signals reduced fear.
• VIX: Declined to 30.12 (low: 28.29), confirming easing volatility (2025 gain: ~90%).
• Phases: Capitulation passed on April 9; April 11–15 rally paused on April 15.
• Rally: Ongoing but paused, with S&P 500 at 5,396.63. Next level: 5,600–5,700 if VIX falls toward 25.
• New Investors: Rally should stabilize sentiment; volatility remains a challenge.
• Outlook: Rally likely to resume absent new shocks. Monitor VIX trends, tariff news, and S&P 500 resistance (~5,600). I can search for more recent sentiment if needed!