World Blog by humble servant.U.S. Stock Market and Bitcoin Futures Trading Update (June 9, 2025) Caesar Market Analysis: Refined Short-Term (5–10 Days) Strategy for Index Shorts and Bitcoin Futures. Disclaimer: These recommendations are for informational purposes only. We never ask for money. Always conduct your own research before trading.

U.S. Stock Market and Bitcoin Futures Trading Update (June 9, 2025)

Caesar Market Analysis: Refined Short-Term (5–10 Days) Strategy for Index Shorts and Bitcoin Futures

By The Humble Servant, June 6, 2025  

Context and Your Positions

Index Shorts: You entered short positions on the indices at the June 6, 2025, close (DJIA: 42,762.87, SPX: 6,000.36, NDX: 21,761, RUS: 2,132.25), anticipating a pullback due to overbought conditions and selling pressure.  

Bitcoin Futures (MBTM25): You were short Bitcoin futures from ~106,350, taking profits in the ~103,000 area (likely June 5 or 6). You noted oversold conditions and are waiting for a bounce to re-enter a short position.  

Market Action: Markets rallied through June 6, with SPX hitting 6,000 and RUS/NDX surpassing prior targets. Overbought technicals (SPX RSI: 65.1, RUS Stochastic K: 99.9) and a low VIX (16.77, oversold) support your short index thesis, while Bitcoin’s oversold stochastic (K: 26) aligns with your plan to re-enter a short on a bounce.  

Jobs Data Impact: Released June 6 after close, likely influencing the June 9 open. Weak data could support your short positions; strong data may trigger a bounce, requiring tight risk management.

Market Snapshot (June 6, 2025, Close)

DJIA

Close: 42,762.87 | Open: 42,631.82 | High: 42,924.56  

Technicals: RSI: 60.9 (slightly overbought), Stochastic K: 89.7, D: 75.6 (overbought), PSAR: 38.82 (bullish), Momentum: 103.5 (bullish, weakening), EMA 50: 41.76, EMA 20: 42.09 (price above both).  

A/D: -8.6B (bearish selling pressure)  

Volume: 416.7M (low, suggests consolidation)

SPX

Close: 6,000.36 | Open: 5,987.06 | Range: 5,978.63–6,016.87  

Technicals: RSI: 65.1 (overbought), Stochastic K: 93, D: 86.2 (strongly overbought), PSAR: 5.26 (bullish), Momentum: 105.5 (bullish, slowing), EMA 50: 5.76, EMA 20: 5.87 (price above both).  

A/D: -75,983.9B (extreme selling pressure)  

Volume: 2,557.9B (moderate)

NDX

Close: 21,761 | Open: 21,777.50 | Range: 21,696.69–21,836.57  

Technicals: RSI: 67.2 (overbought), Stochastic K: 88.3, D: 84.5 (overbought), PSAR: 18.39 (bullish), Momentum: ~108.3 (bullish, assuming typo corrected), EMA 50: 20.55, EMA 20: 21.05 (price above both).  

A/D: Flat (neutral)  

Volume: 308.8M (low, profit-taking likely)

RUS

Close: 2,132.25 | Open: 2,115.20 | Range: 2,115.20–2,132.35  

Technicals: RSI: 64.1 (overbought), Stochastic K: 99.9, D: 89.0 (extremely overbought), PSAR: 1.86 (bullish), Momentum: 105.5 (bullish, slowing), EMA 50: 2.05, EMA 20: 2.07 (price above both).  

A/D: Not provided (assumed neutral)  

Volume: Not provided (assumed moderate)

VIX

Close: 16.77 | Open: 17.68 | Range: 17.06–18.80  

Technicals: RSI: 37.50 (neutral, leaning bearish), Stochastic K: 8.39, D: 18.39 (oversold, bounce likely), PSAR: 23.17 (bearish), SMA: 18.33 (VIX below SMA).

Bitcoin Futures (MBTM25)

Close: 105,060 | Open: 101,770 | Range: 101,360–105,945  

Technicals: Stochastic K: 26, D: 57 (neutral, oversold), PSAR: 108,200 (bearish), SMA: 105,657 (price below SMA).  

Volume: 47,130 (moderate)

Bitcoin Futures Analysis

Recent Trade: You shorted Bitcoin futures from ~106,350 to ~103,000, taking profits as it hit oversold levels (likely stochastic K < 30). The June 6 close (105,060) shows a neutral stochastic K: 26, suggesting a potential bounce.  

Technical Outlook:  

Price below PSAR (108,200) and SMA (105,657) indicates bearish trend, but oversold stochastic (K: 26) and moderate volume (47,130) suggest a short-term bounce to 106,000–107,000 before resuming a downtrend.  

Support: 103,000 (recent low), 100,000 (psychological).  

Resistance: 106,000 (near SMA), 108,200 (PSAR).

Strategy: Wait for a bounce to 106,000–107,000 to re-enter short, targeting 100,000.

Short-Term Outlook (June 9–June 19, 2025, 5–10 Days)

Indices: Overbought conditions (SPX RSI: 65.1, RUS Stochastic K: 99.9) and extreme selling pressure (SPX A/D: -75,983.9B) support your short positions. A VIX bounce to 18–20 (from 16.77, oversold) could drive a 1–3% pullback. Jobs data (June 6) may cause volatility on June 9 open; weak data favors shorts, while strong data could trigger a bounce to resistance.  

Bitcoin Futures: Oversold conditions suggest a bounce to 106,000–107,000, offering a high-probability short entry. A break below 103,000 confirms bearish momentum.  

Key Levels:  

DJIA: Current ~42,700; Bear: 42,200 (–1.2%); Bull: 43,000 (+0.7%). Support: 42,200, 41,900; Resistance: 42,876, 43,000.  

SPX: Current ~6,000; Bear: 5,900 (–1.7%); Bull: 6,088 (+1.5%). Support: 5,900, 5,850; Resistance: 6,088.  

NDX: Current ~21,700; Bear: 21,300 (–1.8%); Bull: 22,000 (+1.4%). Support: 21,300, 20,800; Resistance: 22,000.  

RUS: Current ~2,130; Bear: 2,060 (–3.3%); Bull: 2,150 (+0.9%). Support: 2,100, 2,060; Resistance: 2,150.  

VIX: Current ~16.5–17.5; Bear (for shorts): 18–20; Bull: 15–16.  

Bitcoin Futures: Current ~105,060; Bear: 100,000 (–4.8%); Bull: 107,000 (+1.9%). Support: 103,000, 100,000; Resistance: 106,000, 108,200.

Catalysts:  

Bearish: Weak jobs data, tariff escalation, VIX spike > 18, or tech profit-taking.  

Bullish: Strong jobs data, Fed rate cut signals, or sustained tech strength.

Likely Outcomes:  

Base Case (50%): Indices pull back to primary support (SPX: 5,900, NDX: 21,300) with VIX at 18–20. Bitcoin bounces to 106,000–107,000, then falls to 100,000.  

Bear Case (30%): Deeper correction to secondary support (SPX: 5,850, NDX: 20,800) if VIX > 20 and jobs data is weak. Bitcoin drops below 100,000.  

Bull Case (20%): Indices bounce to resistance (SPX: 6,088, NDX: 22,000) if VIX < 16 and jobs data is strong. Bitcoin rallies to 108,200.

Refined Trading Strategy (June 9, 2025)

Below is a refined strategy for managing your index shorts, re-entering a Bitcoin futures short, and identifying exit points and reversal areas for the next 5–10 days.

DJIA (Short from 42,762.87)

Hold Short: Target 42,200 (–1.3%, ~$130/point). Secondary target: 41,900 (–2.0%, ~$200/point).  

Exit Strategy:  

Take 50% profits at 42,200 (EMA 20: 42.09, support).  

Close full position at 41,900 if VIX > 20 and RSI < 50.  

Stop loss: 43,000 (+0.5%, risk ~$240/point) if DJIA breaks resistance with volume > 500M.

Reversal Area: 42,200–42,300 (EMA 20, support). A bounce could test 42,876–43,000. Exit short and consider long (target: 43,500) if DJIA holds above 42,876 with VIX < 16 and A/D improving.  

Rationale: Stochastic K: 89.7 and low volume (416.7M) signal overbought exhaustion. A/D (–8.6B) supports a pullback, but EMA 20 support may limit downside.

SPX (Short from 6,000.36)

Hold Short: Target 5,900 (–1.7%, ~$50/point). Secondary target: 5,850 (–2.5%, ~$75/point).  

Exit Strategy:  

Take 50% profits at 5,900 (EMA 20: 5.87, support).  

Close full position at 5,850 if VIX > 20 and stochastic K < 70.  

Stop loss: 6,088 (+1.5%, risk ~$88/point) if SPX breaks resistance with A/D improvement.

Reversal Area: 5,900–5,920 (EMA 20, psychological support). A bounce could test 6,088. Exit short and consider long (target: 6,200) if SPX holds above 6,088 with VIX < 16.  

Rationale: RSI (65.1) and stochastic K: 93 are strongly overbought. Extreme A/D (–75,983.9B) signals selling pressure, but bullish EMAs suggest support at 5,900.

NDX (Short from 21,761)

Hold Short: Target 21,300 (–2.1%, ~$92/point). Secondary target: 20,800 (–4.4%, ~$192/point).  

Exit Strategy:  

Take 50% profits at 21,300 (EMA 20: 21.05, support).  

Close full position at 20,800 if VIX > 20 and RSI < 50.  

Stop loss: 22,000 (+1.1%, risk ~$48/point) if NDX breaks resistance with volume > 400M.

Reversal Area: 21,300–21,400 (EMA 20, support). A bounce could test 22,000. Exit short and consider long (target: 22,500) if NDX holds above 22,000 with VIX < 16.  

Rationale: RSI (67.2) and stochastic K: 88.3 indicate overbought conditions. Flat A/D and low volume (308.8M) suggest tech fatigue.

RUS (Short from 2,132.25)

Hold Short: Target 2,060 (–3.4%, ~$145/point). Secondary target: 2,000 (–6.2%, ~$265/point).  

Exit Strategy:  

Take 50% profits at 2,060 (EMA 20: 2.07, support).  

Close full position at 2,000 if VIX > 20 and stochastic K < 70.  

Stop loss: 2,150 (+0.8%, risk ~$36/point) if RUS breaks resistance with strong momentum.

Reversal Area: 2,060–2,080 (EMA 20, support). A bounce could test 2,150. Exit short and consider long (target: 2,200) if RUS holds above 2,150 with VIX < 16.  

Rationale: Stochastic K: 99.9 and RSI (64.1) signal extreme overbought conditions, favoring a pullback to EMA 20.

Bitcoin Futures (No Position, Planning Short)

Re-Enter Short: Enter short at 106,000–107,000 (near SMA: 105,657, resistance). Target: 100,000 (–6.5%, ~$6,000/contract). Secondary target: 95,000 (–11.2%).  

Exit Strategy:  

Take 50% profits at 100,000 (psychological support).  

Close full position at 95,000 if stochastic K < 20 and price breaks 100,000.  

Stop loss: 108,200 (+1.2% from 107,000, risk ~$1,200/contract) if price breaks PSAR with high volume.

Reversal Area: 106,000–107,000 (SMA, resistance). A break above 108,200 (PSAR) with stochastic K > 70 signals a bullish reversal; consider long (target: 110,000).  

Rationale: Oversold stochastic K: 26 suggests a bounce to 106,000–107,000. Bearish PSAR (108,200) and SMA (105,657) support a short on bounce, targeting prior low (103,000) and beyond.

VIX (No Position)

Long Calls: Buy VIX calls (strike ~18, expiry June 2025) to enhance index short profits. Target: 20 (+20%). Stop: VIX < 16.  

Rationale: Oversold stochastic K: 8.39 and VIX at 16.77 suggest a spike to 18–20, amplifying index short gains if jobs data or tariffs trigger volatility.

Areas of Reversal

DJIA:  

Bearish Confirmation: Break below 42,200 (EMA 20) with VIX > 18, RSI < 50, and A/D negative.  

Bullish Reversal: Hold above 42,876 with VIX < 16, volume > 500M, and A/D improving.

SPX:  

Bearish Confirmation: Break below 5,900 (EMA 20) with VIX > 18, stochastic K < 70, and A/D negative.  

Bullish Reversal: Hold above 6,088 with VIX < 16 and A/D improving.

NDX:  

Bearish Confirmation: Break below 21,300 (EMA 20) with VIX > 18, RSI < 50, and volume < 300M.  

Bullish Reversal: Hold above 22,000 with VIX < 16 and volume > 400M.

RUS:  

Bearish Confirmation: Break below 2,060 (EMA 20) with VIX > 18 and stochastic K < 70.  

Bullish Reversal: Hold above 2,150 with VIX < 16 and RSI < 70.

Bitcoin Futures:  

Bearish Confirmation: Rejection at 106,000–107,000 with stochastic K < 50 and price below SMA (105,657).  

Bullish Reversal: Break above 108,200 (PSAR) with stochastic K > 70 and high volume.

Risk Management

Position Sizing: Index shorts: 5–10% per index. Bitcoin futures short: 5–10% on re-entry. VIX calls: 2–5%.  

Hedging: VIX calls (strike ~18) enhance short profits. Consider SPX puts (strike ~5,900) if VIX spikes.  

Stops:  

DJIA: 43,000  

SPX: 6,088  

NDX: 22,000  

RUS: 2,150  

Bitcoin Futures: 108,200 (on short entry at 107,000)

Monitor:  

VIX (<16 bullish, >18 bearish for shorts).  

Jobs data impact (June 6, reflected in June 9 open).  

Tariff news, tech earnings, and A/D trends (SPX A/D improvement signals reversal).  

Bitcoin volume and stochastic K for short entry timing.

Conclusion

Your index shorts (DJIA: 42,762.87, SPX: 6,000.36, NDX: 21,761, RUS: 2,132.25) are supported by overbought conditions (SPX RSI: 65.1, RUS Stochastic K: 99.9) and extreme selling pressure (SPX A/D: -75,983.9B). Hold shorts targeting primary supports (SPX: 5,900, NDX: 21,300), taking partial profits at these levels. For Bitcoin futures, wait for a bounce to 106,000–107,000 to re-enter short, targeting 100,000. Buy VIX calls (strike ~18) to amplify short profits if volatility spikes. Watch for reversals at support (SPX: 5,900, RUS: 2,060) or if VIX < 16 and resistance breaks. Monitor jobs data impact and tariff news on June 9 open.  

Disclaimer: These recommendations are for informational purposes only. We never ask for money. Always conduct your own research before trading.