Johnnie Ellington II August 24, 2015 at 12:39pm · Our models showed a gap in the Reversals and this is what you look for in a Panic move. We warned ” A closing below 16680 would warn of a drop to the 15500 area.

Johnnie Ellington II

August 24, 2015 at 12:39pm · 

Our models showed a gap in the Reversals and this is what you look for in a Panic move. We warned ” A closing below 16680 would warn of a drop to the 15500 area.” This was the GAP. So far the Dow fell to 15370.33 on our target for this week as the Panic Cycle. We ran our What-If Model and Asked CESAR what would be the Daily Bullish Reversal from this low assuming it holds. CESAR 

came back with 17595. Naturally, this is a hypothetical number. The actual number is generated only after the close.

We can see the string of Directional Changes. This is EXTREMELY UNUSUAL and is warning that this move today has caused systemic damage to confidence which helps the shift into the Flight to Quality, which we required to finish the bubble in government. The Monthly Bearish in the Dow lies at 15550. So that is the number that will say this is not a false move but a correction. Then we need to look at October for the next possible low. This is where I would be WRONG about a 3 month False Move and we are in a more sharp correction, but that would still not erase a rally to new highs. If we follow the same degree of damage as was the case with the 1987 Crash, we elected the first two Monthly Bearish and held the third. This is the 15550 number currently whereas the first two are 17065 and 16899.

We MUST always define where an expectation is RIGHT and where it is WRONG. This is by no means a time for emotional forecasts which will plague the headlines now because that sells.

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Johnnie Ellington II

August 24, 2015 at 8:00am · 

The first possible target in time coming out of the 2009 low was 2015.75 for the Dow to reach a Phase Transition and then a crash and burn. We stated in 2011. We have constantly warned that the Phase Transition was not yet confirmed.

Indeed, the Phase Transition clearly shifted back in 2014 and appeared as we have been warning to be postponed into 2017. The three price targets were 18500. 23000, and the 30000-40000 extreme target. At the beginning of 2015, we warned it did not appear to be likely that the market would exceed 18500 on the Dow and it looked like it would crawl along resistance forming a high in May. So far that has been the pattern.

Now the question which confronts us is how long of a contraction do we see. Such a False Move must take place with a minimum of 2 month to 3 months which suggests an August low. If we see lower lows intraday or September closes lower than August with a new intraday low in the Dow (not NASDAQ), then we may have a different pattern ahead. Nonetheless, if this pattern with an August low holds, then we may be off to the Phase Transition coming out of the hole. This would be confirmed by electing Monthly Bullish generated from an August low.

In terms of price, we should be aware of this pattern development by exceeding 18500. The next hurdle will be 23000. Exceeding that level and we are now into the Phase Transition with the target in the 30000-40000 level with a really disastrous outcome. This would most likely be coupled with gold as all tangible assets rise driven by the shift from public to private.

This is the pattern and the requirements to see that unfold. It is not a PERSONAL OPINION and should not be seen as a promotional forecast like gold promoters. If you do not understand this type of analysis, you are not ready for the professional level so go back to your normal viewing channels. You belong in the GURU FOLLOWER CIRCUT.