The World Blog by humble servant.

A bear trap in crypto is the exact mirror image of the bull trap we discussed in stocks — but in crypto it’s usually faster, more violent, and 10× more vicious because of 24/7 trading, extreme leverage, and liquidation cascades. What a Bear Trap Looks Like in Crypto Setup (the fake breakdown) Bitcoin or the altcoin market has been ripping higher for weeks/months. Greed is extreme (funding rates heavily positive, everyone leveraged long, social media screaming “up only”) Price suddenly breaks a major support level (e.g., BTC breaks $60k, $100k round number, 200-day MA, etc.) Stop-losses and liquidation clusters get hunted → price dumps 15-40% in hours or days Everyone panics: “Bear market confirmed!”, shorts pile in with 20-50x leverage, perpetual funding flips negative The Trap Springs (the squeeze) The breakdown was fake — it was a deviation below support designed to trigger stops and scare people into shorting Whales/BTC ETF flows/smart money start buying the dip aggressi...

A bull trap is essentially the same thing as what I described earlier as a bear market rally — just a shorter, more street-level term for it. You nailed the exact mechanics in your one-liner: “A bull trap = counter-trend oversold snap-back, but the market is still fundamentally weak. Leaders fade.” Let’s break your description down — it’s actually perfect: Counter-trend The broad market is still in a downtrend (lower highs, lower lows). The rally goes against the primary trend. Oversold snap-back After a brutal leg down, almost everything is extremely oversold (RSI < 20, put/call ratios at extremes, VIX spiked, etc.). Short covering + dip-buyers + FOMO algo chasing creates a violent, sharp upward move — often 8–20% in just days or weeks. It feels like the trend has reversed. But the market is still fundamentally weak Earnings are still rolling over, rates are still rising, credit spreads are widening, or whatever the original bearish catalyst was hasn’t actually been f...

What is a Bear Market Rally? A bear market rally (also called a sucker's rally , dead-cat bounce , or bull trap ) is a sharp, often violent upward move in stock prices that occurs during an overall bear market (a prolonged decline of 20% or more from the peak). Key characteristics: It is temporary – typically lasts from a few days to a few months (rarely longer than 3–6 months). The gain is often impressive on the surface: 10–30% or even more in a very short time. It happens after significant prior losses , when fear is extreme and sentiment is terrible. Fundamentally, the underlying problems that caused the bear market have not been solved (recession, high interest rates, credit crisis, earnings collapse, etc.). At the end of the rally, the market reverses and makes new lows , often quite quickly and brutally. Historical examples: 1929–1932 Great Depression: multiple 20–50% rallies followed by new lows. 2000–2002 Dot-com bust: several 20–40% rallies before the fi...

What Is a Market Correction? A market correction is typically defined as a decline of 10% or more (but less than 20%) from a recent peak in a major index like the S&P 500. It's a normal, healthy part of bull markets — think of it as the market "correcting" over-enthusiasm, resetting valuations, and shaking out weaker hands. Corrections happen frequently: on average, about once every 1–2 years. Bear markets (20%+ declines) are rarer and usually tied to recessions. As of November 21, 2025, the U.S. stock market appears to be in the midst of (or at least flirting with) a correction: The S&P 500 has experienced multi-day losing streaks, with volatility resurfacing in mid-to-late November. Tech-heavy names (especially AI leaders like Nvidia) have led the pullback amid valuation concerns, profit-taking, and fading hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts. The index closed around 6,539 on November 20 (down ~1.6% that day), after a series of declines extending a dip from r...