The World Blog by humble servant.

Panic Cycle Crash 2: A Comprehensive Report on U.S. Market Vulnerabilities and Global Capital Shifts By Humble Servant August 26, 2025 Executive SummaryThe U.S. financial landscape in August 2025 is marked by deceptive resilience: the S&P 500 has risen approximately 15% year-to-date, closing at 6,465.94 on August 26, up 0.4% for the day, driven by tech optimism and dovish Federal Reserve signals.  Yet, beneath this surface, a confluence of factors—high margin debt ($1.022 trillion in July), dollar debasement (DXY at 98.21, down 10.7% in H1, the worst half-year since 1973), reduced consumer purchasing (Q2 spending up 1.4% annual rate, but slowed from 4.0% in Q4 2024), tariff-induced inflation (CPI at 3.2%, projected to 3.5–4% by mid-2026), declining foreign Treasury purchases (down to 30% of U.S. debt), and China's strategic counter-moves (RMB appreciation to USD/CNY at 7.1188 midpoint, rare earth export controls, soybean import halts)—signals an impending "Panic Cycle Cras...