World Blog by humble servant. The term "war cycle" typically refers to theories in history, sociology, economics, and international relations that suggest wars and major conflicts recur in predictable patterns, often tied to broader societal, economic, or hegemonic shifts.
The term "war cycle" typically refers to theories in history, sociology, economics, and international relations that suggest wars and major conflicts recur in predictable patterns, often tied to broader societal, economic, or hegemonic shifts. These ideas draw from patterns observed in historical data, where periods of peace alternate with escalations of violence. Below, I'll outline some of the most prominent theories, based on established frameworks. Long Cycle Theory This theory posits that global leadership and power structures evolve in cycles of about 70–100 years (sometimes extending to 87–122 years when accounting for the duration of wars). Wars act as "systemic decisions" that destabilize the existing order and facilitate shifts in hegemony. Key proponent: George Modelski, who detailed this in his 1987 book Long Cycles in World Politics . Joshua S. Goldstein expanded on it in Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age (1988), linking economi...