World Blog by humble servant. The beginning .Of what you never bargain for.Rising Energy,Food and basic cost .And the (beginning) of untold hardship.

USDA forecasts for consumer food price inflation were increased again this month, with all food prices now seen rising 5% to 6% (4.5% to 5.5% in March) and grocery store prices expected to rise 5% to 6% (4.5% to 5.5% in March) while the forecast increase in restaurant prices was held at 5.5% to 6.5%. Taking the midpoint of USDA’s forecast ranges, all food price inflation would be the highest since it was 5.5% in 2008 with food at home (grocery store) inflation also the highest since 2008 when it was up 6.5% from the prior year. The 20-year average for food price increases at 2.4% for all food, 2.9% for restaurant prices and 2.0% for grocery store prices means the current outlooks are for costs that are at least double those averages. Changes versus Month-Ago Levels The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food increased 1% from February 2022 to March 2022, and food prices were 8.8% higher than in March 2021. The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI was 6.9% higher than March 2021 while food at home (grocery store) prices were 10% higher than one year ago in March. Factors causing the increased food price inflation, according to USDA, will be upward price pressures from the Ukraine conflict but downward price pressure from recent increases in interest rates by the Fed. “The situations will be closely monitored to assess the net impacts of the concurrent events on food prices as they unfold,” USDA said. HPAI Impacts Confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the US since earlier this year has had an impact—albeit modest—on egg prices, according to USDA. “Egg prices increased by 1.9% in March 2022, following a 2.2% increase in February,” USDA detailed. “An ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza could contribute to poultry and egg price increases through decreased supply or prices could be reduced by a drop in international demand for U.S. poultry.” USDA now sees egg prices rising 6% to 7% in 2022 versus 2021, a big jump from their month-ago outlook that egg prices would be up 2.5% to 3.5%. USDA initially expected 2022 egg prices to be down 0.5% to up 0.5%. Meat, Other Price Increases While wholesale beef prices decreased by 3.6% in March 2022, USDA noted retail beef prices increased by 1%. “Wholesale pork prices, along with port congestion, contributed to a 1.4% increase in retail pork prices in March 2022,” USDA said. Their outlook is for beef and veal prices to rise between 6% and 7% in 2022 (3% to 4% prior), with pork prices seen rising 4% to 5% (3% to 4% prior) and other meat prices are expected up 3.5% to 4.5% (2.5% to 3.5% prior). USDA initially expected beef and veal and pork prices to be up 2% to 3% in 2022. Retail poultry prices are seen up 7.5% to 8.5% in 2022 (6% to 7% prior) in part as cold storage data indicates historically low stocks of frozen poultry. USDA initially expected poultry prices up 1% to 2% in 2022. Fats and oils prices are predicted to increase between 8% and 9% in 2022, up from their prior expectation those prices would increase 6% to 7%. Those prices were expected to be up 1.5% to 2.5% in USDA’s initial outlook. Dairy prices are now seen up 6% to 7% in 2022 compared with 2021, up from 4% to 5% in March. USDA started its 2022 expectations for dairy product prices to be down 0.5% to up 0.5%. More Food Price Forecast Hikes Ahead Given that food price inflation on a monthly and annual basis has not eased, look for USDA to continue increasing their forecasts ahead. In 2008, the last time food price inflation was as high as the midpoint of the current outlook, USDA increased their forecasts each month in March, April and May, with a final increase in August. Similarly, their outlook for grocery store prices increased in March, May and August. For 2022, USDA has already increased its forecast for all food price inflation in February, March and April, after starting from a level of 2% to 3% in July 2021. For grocery store prices, the current 5% to 6% increase is from increases in February, March and April after the agency initially expected grocery store prices to increase just 1.5% to 2.5%. For restaurant prices, USDA’s 5% to 6% forecast is up from an initial expectation for increases to be 3% to 4%, with the forecast range rising in January, February and March. History suggests USDA may arrive at its final outlooks for all food and food at home prices in August. But that would depend on food price inflation data not continuing to build as we move through the balance of 2022. Typically, USDA’s forecasts for all food and grocery store prices stay steady in September-December. Restaurant prices, however, are subject to later upward revisions with the final increase coming in November or December.

It looks like food shortages have continued into 2022. This is what might be causing the issue. After some signs of a slow and cautious return to pre-pandemic normalcy last year, the beginning of 2022 is looking remarkably like fall 2020—and that means supply issues at grocery stores. This time the shortages are scattered throughout the store, but shoppers hoping to get their hands on specific products may find it’s not that easy right now. “It’s spotty, it’s not a widespread situation,” says Katie Denis, vice president of research for the Consumer Brands Association, which represents the consumer packaged goods industry, including companies like General Mills and Kellogg. “It’s not like at the beginning of the pandemic when people went out and cleared shelves to stockpile and panicked.” Still, there are specific aisles feeling the strain most strongly right now. Here are some products to look for during your next grocery run. What Are Stores Running Short On? 1. Avocados You may see less of this fruit (yes, avocado is a fruit) on shelves soon. The American government recently suspended imports of Mexican avocados after a U.S plant safety inspector based in Mexico received a threat. U.S inspectors are posted in Mexico to check whether Mexican avocados can be safely exported to the United States, and without their presence, imports may be on hold. 2. Paper Goods This is an item that we’ve seen at the top of shortage lists for the last two years—toilet paper. Marketplace reports that we should expect to see continued shortages of TP, along with paper towels and other paper goods, as paper mills struggle to keep up with demand and supply chain issues abound. 3. Canned Goods With people stocking up on canned goods in 2020 and 2021, manufacturers continue to face an aluminum shortage. The shortage has continued through the pandemic, and a reduced supply of products like tomato paste, canned vegetables and soda is likely to stay the norm. 4. Eggs and Meat Last spring, news of a chicken shortage resulted in fast-food chains cutting back on chicken items. The shortage then moved over to grocery stores in the fall. According to the NY Post, grocery chain CEO John Catsimatidis warned that continuing supply chain issues could affect the supply of meat and eggs across the country, with parts of the US already seeing prices on eggs, poultry and beef go up thanks to high demand. It might be time to switch to vegetarian dinners (sans the eggs) for a while to combat this food shortage. 5. Pet Food The continuing shortage of aluminum and shipping issues have led to shortages in dog and cat food across the country, with several local papers reporting bare shelves at the pet stores. According to Fox Business, even big retailers like Target and Amazon are facing shortages of pet food, leaving many pet owners scrambling for their furry friends’ staple food and treats. 6. Lunchables With school and work back in full swing in many places, this popular lunch flew off the shelves last year. Kraft announced in 2020 it would keep Lunchables on shelves despite cutting a large number of its products, but it seems the increased demand continues to outstrip supply. If you can’t find Lunchables at the store, you can always make a bento box lunch for the kids. 7. Juice Boxes Another thing you might not be able to add to a packed lunch? Juice boxes. The NY Post reported that a smaller apple crop, along with packing and supply issues, has led to shortages of Capri Sun and other much-loved juice brands. 8. Cream Cheese You might have to put off baking that cheesecake for now—stores are running out of Philadelphia Cream Cheese. The shortage has gotten so bad that according to USA Today, bagel shops in NYC are struggling, while the Junior’s Cheesecakes production line was forced to briefly shut down. 9. Baby Formula The Wall Street Journal recently broke the news of a baby formula shortage, with brands like Enfamil, Similac and Gerber becoming harder to find. With grocery shelves turning up empty, parents have taken to social media to ask where they can find formula. The recent baby formula recall has created even more pressure for parents across the country. 10. Liquor Specifically, champagne and beer. According to Wine Enthusiast, demand dropped for champagne dropped in 2020, and then rose again in 2021. This created a problem as the Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne (CIVC), the trade organization for the Champagne region, set a lower production cap based on the reduced demand. Supply chain issues have compounded the problem. Meanwhile, the shortage of aluminum cans and the increasing price of raw ingredients have led to shortages and higher prices for your favorite craft brew. In 2022, this trend seems set to accelerate. Why Are These Items in Short Supply? It’s because of labor shortages and supply-chain issues, from food manufacturers to grocery stores. There simply aren’t enough people to “make the goods, move the goods and sell the goods,” says Jim Dudlicek, a representative for the National Grocers Association. According to The Washington Post, the recent Omicron surge has also led to more employees calling out sick, affecting the supply chain as well as grocery stores. Recent winter storms have contributed to slow supply as well. In addition, supply is affected by more people cooking and eating at home, a trend that started at the onset of the pandemic. “Demand has been very, very high,” Denis says. Still, she doesn’t think there’s a reason for people to stockpile. She pointed to lumber as an example of a product that was extremely hard to get for a while, but has become more plentiful in recent months, and the food supply chain likely will rebound in a similar fashion, although it may take time. How to Shop Responsibly Right Now If you see purchase limits on products at stores, there’s no reason to panic—or panic buy. The retailers are simply being responsible and managing inventory. “If people can buy what they need, and only what they need, we’ll have enough,” says Denis. Shoppers should expect that specific items may be harder to get at certain times. Be mindful of your fellow shoppers and only take what you really need. And don’t hesitate to ask your local grocer about item availability.