World Blog by humble servant.Date: March 9, 2025 Purpose: Public service and personal use technical analysis of /ESH25 and /NQH25 futures based on March 7, 2025, closing data.

Cesar Analysis Report /ESH25 and /NQH25

Date: March 9, 2025

Purpose: Public service and personal use technical analysis of /ESH25 and /NQH25 futures based on March 7, 2025, closing data.

/ESH25 Analysis (E-mini S&P 500 Futures, March 2025)

Indicators (Close March 7, 2025):

Close: 5,771.75

High: 5,791 | Low: 5,673 | Open: 5,766

SMA: 5,876 (9-day SMA)

PSAR: 5,971

Bollinger Bands: Midline 5,996 | Lower Band 5,743 | Upper Band 6,249

RSI: 29.82

Stochastic Oscillator: %K 19.96 | %D 48.08

Market Sentiment: 51.97 (Present) | 79.01 (High on 12-23-24)

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): +0.06 (Zero Line 0.00)

Volume: 2,245,481

Technical Analysis:

Price Position and Trend:

Close at 5,771.75 is 104.25 points below the 9-day SMA (5,876) and 199.25 points below PSAR (5,971), confirming a bearish short-term trend.

Price is 28.25 points above the BB lower band (5,743), near the lower volatility edge, suggesting support or a potential bounce.

9-Day SMA Context:

SMA (5,876) implies prior 8 days averaged ~5,904. The March 7 drop pulls it down (e.g., flat at 5,771.75 adjusts to ~5,860 by March 18).

Momentum:

RSI (29.82): Oversold, hinting at reversal potential.

Stochastic (%K 19.96, %D 48.08): Oversold, awaiting %K crossover for bullish confirmation.

Volatility (Bollinger Bands):

Wide range (5,743–6,249) shows high volatility. Close near 5,743 suggests a bounce to 5,996 (midline) or test of 5,673.

Volume and Money Flow:

Strong volume (2,245,481) with CMF (+0.06) indicates mild buying amidst selling.

Sentiment:

51.97 (neutral) lags the bearish price, suggesting indecision.

/NQH25 Analysis (E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures, March 2025)

Indicators (Close March 7, 2025):

Close: 20,207

High: 20,286 | Low: 19,765 | Open: 20,214

SMA: 20,674 (9-day SMA)

PSAR: 21,188

Bollinger Bands: Midline 21,354 | Lower Band 19,972 | Upper Band 22,736

RSI: 28.57

Stochastic Oscillator: %K 16.92 | %D 47.57

Market Sentiment: 45.18 (Present) | 78.01 (High on 12-23-24)

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): +0.06 (Zero Line 0.00)

Volume: 753,618

Technical Analysis:

Price Position and Trend:

Close at 20,207 is 467 points below SMA (20,674) and 981 points below PSAR (21,188), a stronger bearish trend than /ESH25.

Price is 235 points above BB lower band (19,972), closer to support than /ESH25’s position.

9-Day SMA Context:

SMA (20,674) implies prior 8 days averaged ~20,747. March 7’s drop adjusts it downward (e.g., flat at 20,207 to ~20,600 by March 18).

Momentum:

RSI (28.57): Deeply oversold, stronger reversal signal than /ESH25.

Stochastic (%K 16.92, %D 47.57): Oversold, %K crossover pending.

Volatility (Bollinger Bands):

Wide range (19,972–22,736) reflects volatility. Close near 19,972 suggests a bounce to 21,354 or test of 19,765.

Volume and Money Flow:

Moderate volume (753,618) with CMF (+0.06) shows slight buying pressure.

Sentiment:

45.18 (bearish-leaning) vs. 78.01 indicates a sharper sentiment drop than /ESH25.

Trade Recommendations

/ESH25

Short-Term (9 Days: March 9, 6:00 PM EST – March 18)

Projection: Open 5,771.75–5,850 (Day 1), 5,673–5,971 (Day 3), 5,673–6,249 (Day 9, ~6,000 bullish, ~5,700 bearish).

Buy:

Entry: 5,771.75–5,743 (March 9–10) if RSI > 30, Stoch %K > %D.

Target: 5,876 (March 11–12), 5,971 (March 13), 5,996 (March 15–16).

Stop-Loss: 5,673 (tight), 5,600 (wider).

Sell:

Entry: Below 5,771.75 (March 9–10) with volume, RSI < 30.

Target: 5,673 (March 11–12), 5,600 (March 13–14).

Stop-Loss: 5,876.

Hold: Near 5,743–5,771.75 until breakout above 5,876 or below 5,673.

Long-Term:

Buy: Above 5,971, SMA rising, target 6,249.

Sell: Below 5,673, sentiment < 50, target 5,600.

Exit Points: Long: 5,996, 6,249 | Short: 5,673, 5,600.

March 9 Open:

Above 5,771.75: Buy to 5,876, stop 5,743.

Below 5,771.75: Sell to 5,673, stop 5,876.

/NQH25

Short-Term (9 Days: March 9, 6:00 PM EST – March 18)

Projection: Open 20,207–20,400 (Day 1), 19,972–21,188 (Day 3), 19,500–22,736 (Day 9, ~21,500 bullish, ~19,700 bearish).

Buy:

Entry: 20,207–19,972 (March 9–10) if RSI > 30, Stoch %K > %D.

Target: 20,674 (March 11–12), 21,188 (March 13), 21,354 (March 15–16).

Stop-Loss: 19,765 (tight), 19,500 (wider).

Sell:

Entry: Below 20,207 (March 9–10) with volume, RSI < 30.

Target: 19,765 (March 11–12), 19,500 (March 13–14).

Stop-Loss: 20,674.

Hold: Near 20,207–19,972 until breakout above 20,674 or below 19,765.

Long-Term:

Buy: Above 21,188, SMA rising, target 22,736.

Sell: Below 19,765, sentiment < 40, target 19,000.

Exit Points: Long: 21,354, 22,736 | Short: 19,765, 19,500.

March 9 Open:

Above 20,207: Buy to 20,674, stop 19,972.

Below 20,207: Sell to 19,765, stop 20,674.

Key Insights

/ESH25: Close (5,771.75) near BB lower (5,743), oversold (RSI 29.82), suggests a short-term bounce to 5,876–5,996. Bearish below 5,673.

/NQH25: Close (20,207) 235 points above BB lower (19,972), deeply oversold (RSI 28.57), favors a bounce to 20,674–21,354. Bearish below 19,765.

Comparison: /NQH25 shows stronger oversold signals (RSI 28.57 vs. 29.82) and a larger SMA drop (467 vs. 104), indicating higher volatility and reversal potential.

Conclusion

Both /ESH25 and /NQH25 are oversold as of March 7, with bearish trends (price < PSAR). The 9-day outlook from March 9, 6:00 PM EST favors short-term recoveries unless key supports (5,673 for /ESH25, 19,765 for /NQH25) break. Long-term bullishness requires breaks above PSAR (5,971 and 21,188). Monitor the March 9 open for confirmation.