World Blog by humble servant. Market Talk..

Already we have people called this the major Bear Market and there will be a counter-trend bounce and this is a bear Market and the stock market will simply implode. The problem with all this analysis is the typical emotional analysis. Nobody Compares the MARKETS to everything surrounding it and simply look at the charts of the past and Proclaim that this is a bear Market. The peak in the PE Ratio actually takes place in a crisis where there is concern involving governments the peak came in 1895 following the Panic of 1893 because that is when the treasury was virtually bankrupt and JP Morgan arranged a gold loan to bail out the government in 1896.There was the peak in 1921 when once again there was serious concern over the rising debt crisis in Europe, we see the next rise in 1934 when Roosevelt confiscated gold and devalue the dollar. We see the rise again in the early 1960s when the first crack came in Bretton woods and the removal of silver from the coinage. Thereafter  the next Peak was in 2002 at the bottom of the correction from the.com bubble and then the all time high in 2008. When  confidence in government and /or the banks are shaken (smart money shift to equities) that is where the big money will Park (FOR IT becomes a concern) .The market did not respond to the cut in interest rates by the FED because of Keynesian economics which is a joke. Free-market is pushing rates higher so we will have an intense battle unfolding that the central banks will lose. When they do the confidence in government will shift into  equities will rise as Safe Harbor in the middle of the storm. So get ready THE  collapse was intense and the BOUNCE will be interesting hold on .

Gold in the March rally gold is up about 10% this year and of course they are calling for testing its record high of 1900 set in 2011 naturally. The goldbugs claim that the bullion is the Antichrist to stocks, as investors around the world gravitate toward a sector for Safe Harbor they always talk that gold is responding to systematic Financial Risk which they are now referred redefining as no longer inflation and quantitative easing but more simply as Financial Risk geopolitical and the impact of convid - 19 as always they just make up excuses to fit the moment what they never addresses the fact that during the Great Depression that they rely upon to make claims that gold rose when stocks decline what they are oblivious to is the fact was gold was money cash back then because we were on a gold standard if that was reasoning more correct than silver should have risen as well however silver decline from 1919 to 1932 because it was a commodity and cash was king or at that time gold it is it is important to understand the real reasons and not nonsense far too many people then lose their shirt we are no longer on on a gold standard it will respond like silver did during the Great Depression since it is no longer cash .The rally yesterday touch the top of the breakout Channel which stood at 1703 in the market peaked at 1704. We have a directional change this week and then the key turning point should arrive the week of 3/23. As long as gold holds the 1445 level on a monthly closing basis then we may yet see new highs in the May. Keep in mind that 1699 remains as important monthly closing resistant the ultimate sustainability for long-term goal is is not the Antichrist to equities because we are not on a gold standard we should expect gold to rise with equities as capital flee government debt on a global scale scale this is when we will see gold really take off this has nothing to do with the this virus or the decline in that EQUITIES. THOSE ARE not things that will make A sustainable bull market IN gold.