World Blog by humble servant.Final Updated Bear Market Report: U.S. Stock Market Analysis with VIX Data as of April 12, 2025

Final Updated Bear Market Report: U.S. Stock Market Analysis with VIX Data as of April 12, 2025

Overview

This report updates the U.S. stock market analysis as of April 12, 2025, incorporating the latest VIX data and index levels from April 11, 2025, as provided: Dow Jones (40,212.71, +1.56%), S&P 500 (5,363.36, +1.81%), NASDAQ (16,724.46, +2.06%), Russell 2000 (1,860.20, +1.57%), and VIX (close: 37.56, day range: 36.85–46.12, chart post-close: 36.16). It builds on prior data (e.g., S&P 500 range: 4,953.56–6,147.43, VIX year range: 10.62–65.73) to assess bear market phases, rally momentum, and implications for investors, particularly those with less than 20 years of experience. Since April 12 index data isn’t available, I’ll use April 11 closes, VIX trends, and sentiment to evaluate dynamics.

Current Market Status (April 11, 2025)

VIX (CBOE Volatility Index):

Close: 37.56 (down from 40.72 on April 10).

Day Range: 36.85–46.12; Post-Close (chart): 36.16.

Context: VIX spiked to 46.12 intraday but closed lower at 37.56, dropping further to 36.16 post-close, indicating easing fear. The 2025 gain is ~137% (from ~15.8 end-2024).

Year Range: 10.62–65.73 (prior peak: 57.96 on April 9).

S&P 500:

Close: 5,363.36 (+1.81%, +95.31 from April 10’s 5,268.05).

Range: 4,953.56 (low) to 6,147.43 (high); -12.8% from peak, +8.3% from low.

Status: Correction (10%+ drop); no longer nearing bear market.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA):

Close: 40,212.71 (+1.56%, +619.05 from April 10’s 39,593.66).

Range: 37,611.56 (low) to 45,073.63 (high); -10.8% from peak, +6.9% from low.

Status: Correction.

NASDAQ:

Close: 16,724.46 (+2.06%, +337.14 from April 10’s 16,387.31).

Range: 15,222.78 (low) to 20,204.58 (high); -17.2% from peak, +9.8% from low.

Status: Correction (improved from -18.9% on April 10).

Russell 2000:

Close: 1,860.20 (+1.57%, +28.81 from April 10’s 1,831.39).

Range: 1,783.06 (low) to 2,449.86 (high); -24.1% from peak, +4.3% from low.

Status: Bear market (>20% drop), but recovering.

VIX Spike Context

April 11 Behavior: VIX hit 46.12 intraday (higher than the earlier 44.64), closing at 37.56, and dropping to 36.16 post-close. This reflects a fear spike mid-session, likely due to tariff uncertainty, but a significant decline by close, signaling stabilization.

Why Elevated?:

Tariffs: Trump’s tariff escalation (e.g., 54% on China) and China’s 34% retaliation fueled volatility earlier in April. The April 9 90-day pause had cut VIX to 33.62, but doubts (e.g., policy reversal fears) pushed it back up. No new escalations reported by April 12.

Economy: Recession fears (45% odds, Goldman Sachs), sticky inflation, and weak confidence persist, though April 11’s rally suggests some optimism.

Tech: “Magnificent Seven” losses (-27.6% from December) impacted NASDAQ, but its +2.06% gain on April 11 hints at recovery potential.

Outcome: VIX at 37.56 (36.16 post-close) is high (normal: 15–20) but well below capitulation peaks (57.96, 65.73), confirming stabilization.

Bear Market Phases

Recognition Phase (Late 2024–Early 2025):

Peaks: S&P 500 (6,147.43), Dow (45,073.63), NASDAQ (20,204.58), Russell 2000 (2,449.86).

VIX: ~10.62. Early 5–10% drops were downplayed.

Panic Phase (March–April 4):

April 4: S&P 500 (~4,953.56, -19.4%), NASDAQ (-24.7%), Russell 2000 (-27.2%), Dow (-12.2%). VIX: 45.61.

Cause: Tariffs triggered a $5 trillion S&P 500 loss.

Capitulation Phase (April 4–9):

Lows: S&P 500 (4,953.56), NASDAQ (15,222.78), Russell 2000 (1,783.06). VIX: 57.96 (April 9).

Rally: April 9 tariff pause lifted S&P 500 +9.5% to ~5,453.35, VIX to 33.62.

Post-Capitulation Volatility (April 10–11):

April 10: S&P 500 (5,268.05, -3.46%), NASDAQ (-4.31%), Russell 2000 (-4.27%). VIX: 41.87.

April 11: VIX spiked to 46.12 but closed at 37.56 (36.16 post-close). Indices rallied (S&P 500 +1.81%), confirming a post-capitulation test and recovery.

Rally Momentum (April 12 Assessment)

VIX Dynamics:

VIX’s drop from 46.12 to 37.56 (and 36.16 post-close) on April 11 confirms your earlier prediction of a rally once VIX fell below 40. Historical patterns (e.g., 2020: VIX 82.69 to 40, S&P 500 +17%) support this, as does April 9’s +9.5% S&P 500 gain after VIX fell from 57.96 to 33.62.

Signal: VIX at 36.16 (post-close) is below 40, and April 11’s rising volume (implied by broad participation in gains) confirms a bottoming process.

Market Levels:

April 11 closes (S&P 500: 5,363.36, NASDAQ: 16,724.46, Russell 2000: 1,860.20) are well above April 4 lows (4,953.56, 15,222.78, 1,783.06). The S&P 500 surpassed your target of 5,300–5,400, suggesting momentum.

Next Target: S&P 500 could aim for 5,600 (near prior resistance) if VIX continues to decline (e.g., below 35).

Sentiment:

Posts on X from April 9 noted a VIX drop to 33.51 and strong index gains (S&P 500 +8.57%, NASDAQ +10.93%), reflecting growing optimism. By April 11, VIX at 36.16 and index gains suggest sentiment is improving further, with Fear & Greed likely ~20–25 (vs. 10–15 earlier).

Catalysts:

Pro-Rally: No new tariff escalations reported by April 12. The April 9 pause (extended to 90 days) and potential Fed signals (June 2025 cut) support gains. Tech’s +2.06% NASDAQ gain on April 11 aligns with prior +12.2% (April 9).

Risks: Policy reversals or weak data (e.g., jobs) could push S&P 500 back to 4,953.56, VIX to 65.73, but VIX’s decline lowers this likelihood.

Patterns:

April 11’s rally aligns with historical post-capitulation recoveries (e.g., 2009). VIX at 36.16 and indices above lows confirm a bottom has formed.

Capitulation Dynamics

April 4–9: Capitulation occurred (VIX 57.96, S&P 500 4,953.56). April 9’s +9.5% gain confirmed exhaustion.

April 11: VIX’s 46.12 high (close: 37.56) was a test, not a new climax. Indices held above lows, and the rally confirms buyers are stepping in.

Inexperienced Investors (<20 Years)

Past: 2007–2009 (-57%, VIX 80+), 2020 (-34%, VIX 82.69), 2022 (-25%, VIX ~36).

Now: Russell 2000 (-24.1%), NASDAQ (-17.2%), S&P 500 (-12.8%), VIX at 36.16 are less severe than 2007–2009 or 2020 but exceed 2022. The April 11 rally should boost confidence for newer investors.

Market Drivers

Tariffs: April 9 pause drove gains; April 11’s VIX spike (46.12) reflected doubts, but no new escalations by April 12 support continued recovery.

Economy: Recession fears (45% odds) and inflation persist, but April 11’s rally suggests markets are pricing in less severe outcomes.

Tech: NASDAQ’s -17.2% (April 11) shows weakness, but +2.06% gain indicates resilience.

Rally Likelihood (April 12)

Probability: Very high. VIX at 36.16, April 11’s rally, and S&P 500 above 5,300 confirm the rally is underway. Momentum could push S&P 500 to 5,600.

Triggers: Tariff clarity, Fed signals, or tech earnings could sustain gains.

Risks: New shocks could hit 4,953.56, but VIX’s decline makes this less likely.

Timeline: Rally is ongoing; monitor for VIX <35 and S&P 500 >5,600.

Conclusion

Status: S&P 500 (-12.8%), Dow (-10.8%), and NASDAQ (-17.2%) are in corrections; Russell 2000 (-24.1%) is in a bear market but recovering. VIX at 36.16 signals reduced fear.

VIX: Dropped to 37.56 (36.16 post-close) on April 11, down from 46.12 intraday, confirming easing volatility (2025 gain: ~137%).

Phases: Capitulation passed on April 9; April 11 was a successful test.

Rally: Underway, with S&P 500 at 5,363.36 exceeding prior targets. Next level: 5,600 if VIX falls below 35.

New Investors: Rally should stabilize sentiment; volatility remains a challenge.

Outlook: Rally likely to continue absent new shocks. Monitor VIX trends, tariff news, and S&P 500 resistance (~5,600).