World Blog by humble servant.Trump’s tariff strategy does echo his Art of the Deal playbook—big moves, bold bluffs, and calculated concessions to keep opponents guessing

Trump’s tariff strategy does echo his Art of the Deal playbook—big moves, bold bluffs, and calculated concessions to keep opponents guessing. The recent exemption on electronics, announced April 12, 2025, fits this pattern. It’s a tactical pivot, not a retreat, aimed at balancing leverage with pragmatism. Here’s how it’s unfolding and what it shapes:

The Hand: Trump’s initial tariffs—145% on China, 10% globally—were a classic opening gambit, projecting strength to force negotiations. The electronics exemption (smartphones, computers, chips) pulls back from consumer pain points, avoiding price spikes that could alienate voters or tank markets. It’s a nod to reality: the U.S. relies heavily on Asian supply chains, and domestic manufacturing can’t yet fill the gap. This mirrors his deal-making style—push hard, then ease up to keep the table open.

The Shape: The exemption signals a multi-dimensional strategy:

Consumer Relief: By sparing iPhones and laptops, Trump dodges inflation backlash. Analysts estimated a top-end iPhone could’ve hit $2,300 at full tariff rates. This keeps tech giants like Apple happy and consumers less squeezed.

China Focus: The 145% tariff on China stays, but exempting electronics softens the blow on U.S. firms reliant on Chinese assembly. It’s a way to pressure Beijing without crippling American companies or global supply chains.

Negotiation Leverage: The 90-day pause on most global tariffs (except China) and now this exemption show Trump’s creating wiggle room. He’s inviting deals—countries like Japan, South Korea, or even the EU might offer trade concessions to avoid future levies.

Long Game: The White House hinted at a coming Section 232 study on semiconductors, suggesting targeted tariffs could return. This keeps the threat alive, nudging firms to “onshore” production while buying time to build U.S. capacity.

Critics’ Take: Some see inconsistency—Senator Chris Murphy called it a giveaway to big donors. Others, like former ambassador Michael McFaul, question the strategy’s coherence. On X, posts range from calling it a “clown show” to praising it as “tactical.” The truth likely lies in between: it’s messy but deliberate, aiming to reshape trade without breaking the economy.

The Shape Forming: This looks like a push for selective decoupling—hitting China hard, coaxing allies into better terms, and nudging companies toward U.S. soil. But it’s fragile. Global retaliation (China’s 125% tariffs, EU’s planned duties) could escalate, and supply chain shifts take years, not months. If Trump overplays, markets could wobble again, as seen in last week’s volatility.

It’s a high-stakes poker game, with exemptions as chips to keep players engaged. Whether it reshapes global trade or just stirs chaos depends on how Trump plays the next hand