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Israel’s War on Iran: Beyond Nuclear Weapons

The narrative pushed by the United States, Israel, and some European allies—that Israel’s attack on Iran was a “pre-emptive” strike to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions—lacks credible evidence. This claim echoes the baseless allegations against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the war itself is equally unjustified under international law.

For nearly four decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Iran is on the cusp of developing a nuclear weapon. However, every effort to negotiate a deal imposing stricter oversight and limitations on Iran’s nuclear program has been undermined by Israel and its influential lobbying networks in Western capitals.

To understand Israel’s motives, the facts must be clear. Israel’s leadership claims the strike was pre-emptive, yet no evidence supports the assertion that Iran was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon. Mere claims do not constitute proof, much like the U.S.’s unfounded assertions about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction in 2003.

In March, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified before a Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not revived the nuclear weapons program halted in 2003. Additionally, Iran was engaged in indirect talks with the U.S. to revive the 2015 Nuclear Deal, which the U.S. unilaterally abandoned in 2018 under pressure from Israel, opting instead for a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign.

Despite claims by Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump that Iran violated the Nuclear Deal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran’s full compliance at the time of the U.S. withdrawal. Critics of the deal, including neoconservatives, Israeli hawks, and Washington think tanks, often pivot to Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for regional groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, revealing their true concerns.

Israel’s stated goal of stopping Iran’s nuclear program is questionable. Israel lacks the military capacity to destroy Iran’s extensive, fortified nuclear infrastructure, much of which is built into mountainous terrain. The U.S. has struggled to destroy similar bunkers, as seen in its failed attempts to target missile storage sites in Yemen. If Israel cannot realistically achieve this objective, why launch the attack?

Shortly after the assault, Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people in English, urging them to overthrow their government—a clear signal of regime change ambitions. Israeli intelligence and military leaders have acknowledged their air force cannot dismantle Iran’s nuclear program alone, further suggesting ulterior motives.

Two explanations emerge. First, the attack could be part of a broader strategy to conclude a “seven-front war” with a high-stakes exchange, allowing Netanyahu to claim a symbolic victory by asserting damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. This narrative, bolstered by strikes on key Iranian figures, could be sold domestically as a success, even if Iran also claims victory, leading to a temporary de-escalation.

The second, and potentially concurrent, goal is regime change, possibly with U.S. involvement. Israel’s military reputation suffered after the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and it has failed to decisively defeat Hamas, Hezbollah, or Yemen’s Ansarallah. Iran, as the backbone of the Axis of Resistance, is the linchpin of these groups. Crippling Iran could weaken this alliance, though it would not end resistance to Israeli occupation.

However, regime change in Iran is far from guaranteed and risks escalating into a broader conflict, potentially nuclear. Iran, feeling betrayed by attacks during supposed negotiations, may now accelerate its nuclear program for self-defense. Even if the U.S. joins and damages Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Tehran could rebuild, possibly acquiring a bomb later. Alternatively, the war could destabilize Israel itself, putting its own regime at risk.

The claim that this war is a pre-emptive strike against a nuclear threat is unsupported and implausible. Instead, the evidence points to a long-standing Israeli objective: dismantling Iran’s government and breaking the Axis of Resistance.