World Blog by humble servant. Bitcoin: Hard Reversal on November 25 – Bull Trap Luring the Weak Hands?

Bitcoin: Hard Reversal on November 25 – Bull Trap Luring the Weak Hands?

Spot on—today's action was a gut-punch reversal that screams "bull trap" setup, perfectly designed to suck in the dip-buyers just before the bears reload. After grinding sideways in the $86K–$87K range through the morning (UTC), BTC spiked hard to test $89,000+ resistance around midday, printing a +1.67% gain intraday and briefly reclaiming the $88,800 zone on what looked like fresh spot demand. But it was a fakeout: Volume stayed anemic (no surge above 48-hour averages), funding rates flipped neutral-to-negative (signaling short surrender but no real conviction), and by late session, sellers swatted it back below $87,500 with a violent rejection wick—closing the day around $88,007 (+1.33% official, but feels like a headfake). This mirrors the post-$80K bloodbath bounce we dissected yesterday: A dead-cat rally to lure FOMO longs, only to flush them on the inevitable retest lower. On-chain? Short-term holder losses hit $120M today alone, but whale inflows to cold storage ticked up 2.1%—classic trap dynamics where retail gets rinsed while big money waits.

cryptonews.com

Quick Breakdown: Why This Reversal Feels Engineered

The Spike Setup: From $86,700 open to $88,800 peak in ~4 hours, driven by a fleeting Fed cut whisper (85% Dec odds briefly hit 90%) and ETF flatflows ($151M outflows yesterday, but no fresh bleed today). X chatter exploded with "bottom in" calls, but RSI diverged bearish (hitting 45 on the pop, no overbought snap).

99bitcoins.com

The Reversal Hammer: Afternoon rejection at $89K (key Fib 0.618 from Oct ATH) triggered $180M in long liqs, with CVD flipping negative mid-session—sellers dominating as APAC handed off to EU shorts. Session stats? US/EU down 18–24% cumulative (panic mode), APAC flat at -4% (quiet accumulation)—echoes 2022 FTX bottoms where Asia buys the flush.

@Stefan_B_Trades

@AltcoinPiooners

Trap Confirmation Signals:

Metric Today's Reading Trap Implication

Price Action $86.7K → $89K spike → $87.5K rejection Classic bull trap wick; failed 50-day MA reclaim (now at $90.2K)

Volume/OI Low vol (+12% on spike, -8% on dump); OI rebuilding neutral No conviction buying; shorts trapped below $87.4K VWAP for squeeze fakeout@Stefan_B_Trades

Funding Rate Neutral → -0.0012% (late flip) Bears overextended; history shows neg funding clears weak hands before pumps@lupoxbt

Fear & Greed Stuck at 15–19 (Extreme Fear) Capitulation phase; bounces here lure 70% of retail before deeper lows

99bitcoins.com

coincodex.com

On-Chain Flows $120M STH losses; +2.1% whale HODL Retail trapped; institutions (e.g., Metaplanet +$130M BTC buy) position for $74K retest@YaronBuilds

X sentiment? Split but leaning trap: Traders like @ovarpt and @ChmielDk call it a "major bull trap" with $85.8K next, citing the $86.8K rejection as sellers regaining control. Bulls like @afsheenjaf see "quiet reversal" in stabilizing flows (stablecoin supply +0.8%, spot bids at $86K), but even they warn of $84.8K support test. Podcasts echo: @MilkRoad debates if it's "bull trap or real recovery," with guests eyeing $52K as the non-bull-case floor.

@ovarpt

Commentary: Lured In, Flushed Out – Bears' Turn to Feast

You're nailing the psychology: That hard reversal wasn't mercy—it was bait. After the $80K capitulation flush (erasing $800B+ market cap), today's pop lured the "buy the dip" crowd (FOMO at extreme fear levels) right into the grinder, just like COVID '20 or FTX '22 where bounces preceded 20–30% retests. Politically incorrect? Yeah, it's retail's fault for chasing headlines (Trump tariffs inflating CPI to 2.9%, Fed "higher for longer" at 31% Dec cut odds) while whales like Abu Dhabi ($520M scoop) and NJ pensions ($16M MSTR) treat this as a fire sale. The trap works because weak hands panic-buy the wick, ignoring the macro noose: DXY strength crushing risk-off, AI bubble fears spilling from Nasdaq (down 3% MTD), and ETF outflows at $2.8B since Nov 12.

cbsnews.com

Forward bias? Downside to $85.8K–$86K immediate (daily low test), then $74K magnet if $88K fails as resistance—70% skew per options, with monthly close below 50-week MA sealing bear confirmation. Upside escape? Needs $89.2K break + ETF inflow flip for $91K consolidation (per @CryptoMichNL), but that's 30% odds without a macro thaw. Long-term? Still bullish cycle (halving scarcity, 15% locked supply), but Q4's worst since '18 demands patience—don't hero the trap. Position: Short the $88K retest, long $74K if convicted. History's clear: These lures precede pain, then 50%+ pops. Watch the close; fear's your edge until flows flip.