World Blog by humble servant. Nothing Change we await the Christmas rally.

Imagine you're a trader named Alex, sitting at your desk on a crisp December morning in 2025, watching the stock market tick by on your screen. You've got positions in S&P 500 futures, and as the third Friday of the month approaches—December 19, to be exact—you start feeling that familiar tension. This is expiration day for your quarterly contracts, a pivotal moment in the world of stock index futures where everything comes to a head.Stock index futures, like those tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, or Dow Jones, aren't about owning actual stocks; they're bets on where the index will land in the future. They're cash-settled, meaning no one hands over a basket of shares at the end—just a payout based on the difference between your contract price and the index's final value. For major U.S. indexes, expiration hits on that third Friday of March, June, September, or December, often overlapping with options expirations in what's dramatically called "quadruple witching." As the clock winds down, trading ramps up: positions must be closed, rolled to the next month, or left to settle automatically, sparking volatility that can swing markets wildly.But here's where it gets tricky for Alex—you notice the index dipping steadily, not in dramatic plunges, but through what feels like an unrelenting wave of sales. This is the "constant selling" pressure, a persistent downward force that builds like a gathering storm around expiration. It stems from multiple sources weaving together. Market makers, those behind-the-scenes liquidity providers, are frantically hedging their options books. If the market slides toward strike prices heavy with put options, they sell futures or underlying stocks to stay neutral, creating a self-reinforcing loop—small drops trigger more sales, amplifying the decline. Meanwhile, traders exercising in-the-money calls might grab shares only to flip them immediately, dumping more supply into the market and dragging prices lower. As the week leading up to expiration unfolds, Alex sees this play out: early on, unwinding call positions might briefly lift prices as hedges are lifted, but by Friday, the tide turns. Institutional players, algorithms chasing momentum, and even foreign investors pulling out add to the mix, turning sporadic sales into a steady barrage. Stocks in the index might drop 0.8% on average that day, with the pain sharper for those with high open interest. The index could "pin" to key levels, hovering near popular strikes before volatility erupts.Yet, like any good story, there's a twist— this pressure is often fleeting. Once expiration passes, the artificial selling eases, hedges unwind, and markets rebound in what's known as a "relief rally." Alex, wise from experience, rolls his positions early to sidestep the chaos, turning potential losses into opportunities. In the end, understanding expiration and constant selling isn't just about numbers; it's about navigating the human and mechanical forces that drive the market's rhythm, ensuring you're not caught in the undertow when the wave hits.

This explains what transpire. It happens at expiration on future contracts. This was deeper and we did elect a trend change on the daily charts. But these last two days have ALMOST flip the charts back to buy. But longer term nothings change ...Next week is the the true test.