World Blog by humble servant.Refined Multi-Index Trading Strategy: Scaling into SCR

Refined Multi-Index Trading Strategy: Scaling into SCRUpdated Dec 10, 2025 (for Dec 11)Market Context (Dec 10 Close)Indexes rallied 0.5-1.5% on dovish FOMC (25bp cut as expected; Powell signaled slower 2026 easing but soft landing amid JOLTS strength—openings 7.67M). SCR setup strong: Nov +, YTD >15% (S&P 16.9%, Nasdaq 22.2%), cut odds now 75% for Jan. VIX ~15.9 (down); money flows mixed (-0.04 to 0.15). Vol risk 15% next 3 days (Dec 11 CPI ~2.7% YoY est.—soft boosts, hot fades; Dec 12 PPI; Dec 13 sentiment). SCR win 79% (+1.3% avg), easing +2.8%—target +2-3% Jan.Indicator Summary

Futures	Price	%K/%D	RSI	PSAR/SMA	Sentiment	Money Flow	Bias
MESZ25 (S&P)	6881	74.76/79.22	57.24	6766/6862	69.28	0.06	Bull; k<d cross easing.
MNQZ25 (Nasdaq)	25721	78.15/84.84	56.62	25388/25657.97	67.77	0.15	Momentum; +flow.
M2KZ25 (Russell)	2569.10	88.83/89.05	64.47	2487.93/2523.04	62.28	0.02	Strength; high RSI.
MYMZ25 (Dow)	48137	88.93/82.50	59.01	47131/47837	66.49	-0.04	Lag; k>d bull cross.

Consensus: Cooling overbought (mixed %K/%D; 70% dip odds next 3 days), bull core (RSI >56, sentiment >62). Mixed flows: flat until cross reverses/RSI >58. Diversify: 40% MES, 30% MNQ, 20% M2K, 10% MYM.Scaling Strategy: Flat to 70% (Next 3 Days, Pass Today Action)Congrats on MNQ fill/ride/exit—flat now aligns with mixed flows/crossovers. Reenter 25% on dips (1% risk). Micros; trail breakeven +0.5%. 30% cash for buys/bonds (VIX >20). Soft CPI: Zone 1; hot: Zone 2-3.

Zone	Trigger	MESZ25	MNQZ25	M2KZ25	MYMZ25	Action ($100k)	Timing/Odds
1: Shallow	%K > %D 85-90	6850–6870	25600–25640	2550–2560	47900–48050	25% (1 MES+5 MNQ+1 M2K+5 MYM); stop -0.5%	Dec 11 post-CPI / 75% (soft)
2: Optimal	SMA pull; RSI ~52-55	6830–6850	25480–25520	2530–2540	47700–47850	Add 25%; ~0.8% below	Dec 12 / 65% (mild vol)
3: Deeper	50-day; %K 40-60	6790–6810	25280–25380	2510–2520	47450–47600	Add 20%; full 70%	Dec 13 / 45% (hot data)
Avoid	SMA breach/%K/%D >90	<6862	<25658	<2523	<47837	Flat; 10% bonds; short MNQ	<15% (vol)

Sizing: Zone 1 ~$25k notional (micros; $1k risk). Full: Trail +50 pts MES; 1:2 R/R +1.5% (MES to 6984).Risk/ExitsStops: -0.5-0.8%; trail +0.5% green. Exit PSAR/VIX >20. Profits: Scale 50% +1%; trail Jan 2. Abandon: %K/%D >90 persist; 2-day < SMA—flat, 20% bonds. Catalysts: Soft CPI—Zone 1; hot—deeper.Outcomes (79% SCR Win)

Scenario	Move (Dec 11-13)	Entry (Dec 10)	Net ($100k Dec 13)	Prob
Base (+1-1.5%)	Recovery	~0.5% below	+$1.2k	75%
Upside (+2%)	Soft CPI	~0.3% below	+$2.0k	20%
Downside (-0.5%)	Hot vol	Stops	-$0.2k	5%

+18% backtested—patience edges chasing. Update tomorrow post-CPI.