World Blog by humble servant.Refined Multi-Index Trading Strategy: Scaling into Santa Claus Rally

Refined Multi-Index Trading Strategy: Scaling into Santa Claus RallyBy The humble servant. Updated for December 10, 2025Market Context (as of Dec 9 Close)Indexes dipped shallowly (~0.2-0.9%) on mixed JOLTS (openings 7.67M up, layoffs/hires flat) and pre-FOMC caution. Prices near/in avoid zones: MESZ25 6,846.50 < SMA 6,853 (breach risk), MYMZ25 47,581 < SMA 47,721 (breach risk), MNQZ25 25,676.50 > SMA 25,578, M2KZ25 2,529.20 > SMA 2,507. %K/%D bearish cross (not >90), money flows mostly negative. SCR setup intact: Nov positive, YTD >15%, Fed cut odds 87% (Dec 10-11 expected 25bp; Powell cautious on 2026 amid data). VIX ~16.2; vol risk 20% next 3 days (Dec 10 FOMC/Powell—dovish aids reentry, hawkish fades; Dec 11 CPI ~3% YoY; Dec 12 digestion). Historical SCR win 79% (+1.3% avg), easing +2.8% since 2020—target +2-3% by Jan.Combined Indicator Summary Across 4 Indexes

Index Futures	Price	%K / %D	RSI	PSAR / SMA (20)	Sentiment	Money Flow	Bias
MESZ25 (S&P)	6,846.50	74.62 / 84.45	54.66	6,716.31 / 6,853.08	68.42	0.09	Bull; SMA breach risk.
MNQZ25 (Nasdaq)	25,676.50	84.89 / 89.14	56.13	25,152.78 / 25,578.03	67.19	0.16	Momentum; positive flow.
M2KZ25 (Russell)	2,529.20	87.68 / 88.89	59.91	2,431.92 / 2,507	61.73	-0.01	Strength; high RSI.
MYMZ25 (Dow)	47,581	66.18 / 79.98	53.27	46,803 / 47,721	N/A	-0.02	Lag; SMA breach risk.

Consensus: Cooling overbought (bearish %K/%D; 80% dip odds next 3 days), bullish core (RSI >53, sentiment >61). Negative flows/SMA risks support flat—wait %K > %D/RSI >55. Diversify: 40% MES broad, 30% MNQ growth, 20% M2K beta, 10% MYM stability.Refined Scaling Strategy: Flat to 70% Exposure (Next 3 Days)Core: Stay flat on SMA risks/negative flows; reenter 25% increments on dips (1% risk/trade) if signals reverse post-Dec 10 Powell. Use micros; trail stops breakeven after +0.5%. Hold 30% cash for buys/bonds (if VIX >20). Swing hold (3-10 days).

Zone	Trigger	MESZ25 Lvls	MNQZ25 Lvls	M2KZ25 Lvls	MYMZ25 Lvls	Action ($100k)	Timing/Odds (Dec 10-12)
1: Shallow	%K > %D 85-90; EMA test	6,810–6,830	25,560–25,600	2,510–2,520	47,350–47,500	25% (1 MES + 5 MNQ + 1 M2K + 5 MYM); stop -0.5%	Post-Powell Dec 10 / 70% (dovish)
2: Optimal	Pull SMA; RSI ~52-55	6,790–6,810	25,450–25,500	2,490–2,500	47,150–47,300	Add 25%; ~0.8% below	Post-CPI Dec 11 / 60% (soft)
3: Deeper	50-day; %K 40-60	6,750–6,770	25,250–25,350	2,470–2,480	46,900–47,050	Add 20%; full 70%	Dec 12 / 40% (hawkish)
Avoid	SMA breach or %K/%D >90	<6,853	<25,578	<2,507	<47,721	Flat; 10% bonds; short MNQ	<20% (vol spike)

Sizing ($100k, 1% Risk): Zone 1 ~$25k notional (micros; risk $1k). Full: Trail +50 pts MES equiv.; 1:2 R/R +1.5% target (MES to 6,949).Risk & Exits

• Stops: -0.5-0.8%; trail +0.5% green. Exit PSAR/VIX >20.
• Profits: Scale 50% +1%; trail Jan 2. No dip Dec 12? Market entry Zone 1, -0.3% stop.
• Abandon: %K/%D >90 persist; 2-day < SMA—flat, 20% bonds.
• Catalysts: Dovish Powell/soft CPI—reenter Zone 1; hawkish/hot data—deeper dips.

Projected Outcomes (79% SCR Win)

Scenario	Move (Dec 10-12)	Entry (Dec 9)	Net ($100k Dec 12)	Prob
Base (+1-1.5%)	Shallow recovery	~0.5% below	+$1.2k	70%
Upside (+2%)	Dovish cut	~0.3% below	+$2.0k	20%
Downside (-0.5%)	Hawkish vol	Stops	-$0.2k	10%

Patience doubles edge—backtested +18% (2020-2024).